Using a North Korea hypothetical to model our situation.
To simplify terms in this thread I'm just going to use the following terms: Cabal (bad guys occupying Earth), Reptilian army (bad guys mostly in this part of the galaxy), federation (good guys), captive isbes (us).
Everything that's happening does seem to lead to a game of dominoes, with the Reptilian army trying to hold tightly their territory and the federation trying to break Reptilian grip. The federation has broken the reptilian's direct access, but the cabal's remnant officials are still within the planet, willing to sacrifice the territory for the more precious resource it contains - the isbes. The Reptilian army is hoping to ride out the insurgent attempt from the federation rather than forcing their army out. The cabal's remnants inside Earth are hoping to ride out the insurrection, by keeping the isbes in a sort of confused loyalty. The federation was able to bring its military to surround the Earth, but is still pushing for an insurrection from within.
Now to consider a scenario that I feel like is fitting to our current exopolitics, I'm going to use a similar Earth scenario to help visualize the situation. To simplify, I will now refer to the Cabal as Pyonyang or the Kim administration, Earth as North Korea, the Federation as South Korea, and the China Cabal as the reptilian army. Again, I'm not referring to all of China, because China itself is a very big country with a lot of influences and beliefs. For that instance I'll just stick to "China Cabal" So to go with this visualized hypothetical scenario.
South Korea has begun its plot to free North Korea. They do not want to storm Pyonyang because of the incidental damage it will do, killing a great deal of the North Koreans in the process (or losing them to NK basically). The South Koreans are also not going up against the China Cabal directly because although its possible they will have many countries in their support, they know that it will be a very difficult exchange that will just lead once again to many lives lost and a lot of collatoral damage. So what South Korea has managed to do instead is to cut off all China Cabal influence on NK by occupying the entire stretch from the Yalu and Tumen rivers up to Heaven Lake between them (the general NK / China border). Pyonyang is cut off but still retaining potential nuclear weapons and the like. Now because of this cutoff, the Kim administration has decided to forego their harsher punishments such as executing several generations for watching korean dramas. But instead, the Kim administration pushes a bigger media campaign, trying to make the North Koreans forget the actual history of their force, suggesting that the North Koreans can leave the country if they could just manage to build a car good enough to traverse its roads, when in fact the administration is prepared to sabotage any vehicle the NKs use to attempt in doing so. The Kim Administration knows that if they spend enough time stalling in this way, the South Koreans will run out of military resources. Meanwhile, the South Koreans are attempting to sway the North Koreans with just enough resources to perform a soft Coup. If the North Koreans reach enough subversive supplies, and just enough direction, it is possible that in a very crucial moment, they will band together quickly and become a force for Pyonyang to reckon with.
This is the sort of political situation I am visualizing when I try to understand the situation for Earth that farsight describes. Thoughts?