"Where did you get the idea for #3?"
That premise is also a conclusion based on premise #2. If the ETs push the button, the war would become hot, but we don't see that happening yet. This leads to the question: How does everybody see who's pushing the buttons? I guess that's where the phase shifting technology comes into place: You can be there and observe, but you are not touchable. I still don't understand how that works, but it seems possible.
"Especially "belong to the Good ETs but forgot"?"
They would not push the button if they remember. If someone remembers who they are shooting at and still wants to push the button, they should be considered to belong to the bad ETs. Who you belong to is not who you are, but how you think.
"I think it more likely that the DTs are just hard to spot, or there are better defences - or perhaps some other reason."
My phrasing was incomplete. I'm talking about a "perimeter". It's not possible to dismantle the death traps from outside the perimeter. Inside the perimeter, there are defences against attacks from the outside.
"firstly, it's not verified that those craft are necessary for the DT destruction."
Crafts including rockets and such. The alternative being a human carrying a weapon that can destroy the death traps, as shown in the 2019 movie "Captive State". But I guess there are backup systems, so an attack would need to be orchestrated.
"Secondly, if there are all those craft flying around up there (as per the IR video), then why haven't they destroyed the DTs?"
My guess is that the crafts of the good ETs are mostly out of phase, thus aren't able to do harm. A small amount of crafts becoming "touchable" seems to be no problem for the bad ETs, but many crafts becoming touchable would result in the hot war the good ETs try to prevent as long as the human population is on the wrong side.
"there's a HUGE assumption here about human agency - I call it the US-centrism... where is the shooting down occurring?"
Every government on Earth is on the wrong side, because of the nature of government. You need to understand that government is slavery, because the government is allowed to attack legitimately (preemptively), even its own people. That's a violation of the non-aggression principle. Humans on Earth are conditioned to see that violation as a right, while in nature, that right does not exist. Because of that conditioning, the governments can be used as an executive layer to run the prison planet. Most people just don't see that the actions of the government are wrong.
"And which organisations which control any shooting downs are running that operation?"
It's a hierarchical structure. We can assume that the prison planet has an administration. Think of the planet as a colony with one governor. The human governments are below that governor, forced to follow the orders from the top. Any government who wants to break out of that structure will be discredited as a rogue regime. If necessary, a war is started through false flag operations. We already know how that works.
"Your suggestion is that there's one single force (or alliances of forces) all doing the shooting down."
You don't need alliances. You just need order followers who don't question orders, and all governments on Earth have them, because people think that's how it should be.
"Firstly, how would you know? Perhaps there are ETs who get zapped, but because their memories have been wiped, they don't recall."
It works like the coverage of a radio station. No technology has an endless range. The question is: How far does it reach? And: the further it reaches, the more power is needed to run it.
"Secondly, I will suggest that the mechanism isn't perfect, and that there may be other ways to get past it."
Agreed. The AI is one weak spot. It can be talked to.
"CB has said that the good ETs are staying out of it directly because of agreements in place, not because of being shot down"
The agreements are made to prevent a hot war. That's why it's a cold war, not a peace agreement.
"Given that these craft are fairly easily filmed, and that the filming shows there's likely thousands of UFOs above us at any one time, and that we're talking about significant military operations, it seems unlikely that this is the only obstacle to disclosure..."
I tought about that a lot. What would happen if one side violates the agreement? Well, the good ETs would come out of the phase shifting and try to destroy the death traps. Human government military would fight that because it would look like an invasion. Essentially, the good ETs would need to fight exactly the people who they try to rescue. In that conflict, many will die, which means the death traps need to be destroyed first.
Now, let's assume the good ETs manage to do that. Imagine a fleet full of rescued ISBEs in the need of healing. The forces are worn out because of the conflict. See, at that point, the forces mainly fought against humans, so it would be easy for the bad ETs to attack the rescue fleet, kill the good guys and collect the vulnerable ISBEs, which seems to be easy enough. If I were the bad guys, that's how I would do it.